Insights of aerosol-precipitation nexus
Insights of aerosol-precipitation nexus in the central Arctic through CMIP6 climate models
Over the past 20 to 30 years, the climate in the Arctic has warmed significantly faster than in mid-latitudes—a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification.” Aerosols influence the radiation balance in the Arctic both directly and indirectly, but measuring them is difficult and there is little data available.
The study investigated how many aerosols (suspended particles in the air) there are and how they affect rain and snowfall.
Some of the world's most important climate models are inaccurate: some calculate too many aerosols, others too few. Arctic aerosols are modeled and measured using the parameter aerosol optical depth (AOD). This is a good indicator of the amount of aerosols in the region under investigation.
If one of the models used calculates a lot of aerosols, it also calculates more snow and less rain. If it calculates fewer aerosols, it tends to predict more rain.
The study shows that better measurements and more accurate models help to predict more reliably how much rain and snow there will be in the Arctic in the future.
Swain, B., Vountas, M., Singh, A. et al. Insights of aerosol-precipitation nexus in the central Arctic through CMIP6 climate models. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 103 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00957-6
